Are New Mexico's nonpartisan voters sitting out the election?
New Mexico early voting data showed strong Democratic participation, while nonpartisan voters account for a smaller share of ballots than their share of registered voters.
Early voting data showed strong Democratic participation while voters without a major-party affiliation lag behind their share of the electorate.
Pat Davis, The New Mexico News
This article was originally published by New Mexico Political Report.
If early voting turnout is any indication of a blue wave year for Democrats in New Mexico, 2026 is shaping up to be one for the record books.
Voter turnout data from the Secretary of State’s Office analyzed by The New Mexico News found that 51% of early and absentee ballots cast statewide during early voting were from registered Democrats, even though they only make up 40% of registered voters. Republicans, who make up 30% of statewide voters, cast 31% of early votes while nonpartisan — or Decline to State — voters cast just 16% of early votes, though they make up 28% of the voting population.
Republicans traditionally turnout more heavily on Election Day which may even out partisan enthusiasm trends, but the relatively low turnout of nonpartisan voters may be an early validator of predictions that many of voters outside the partisan system are frustrated with both major parties and intend to sit the election out.
In the state’s more urban and traditionally Democratic counties, Democratic participation is even higher. The four largest counties of Bernalillo, Doña Ana, Santa Fe and Sandoval accounted for 67.40% (more than two-thirds) of all pre-Election Day ballots cast in the state. Democrats cast 92,889 more ballots over Republicans in these four jurisdictions alone—accounting for nearly the entirety of the statewide Democratic early partisan turnout lead of 93,836. Across the remaining 29 counties (148,891 total votes), turnout by party registration is virtually even: Democrats cast 63,903 ballots (42.92%) and Republicans cast 62,956 ballots (42.28%), separated by just 947 ballots.
Voting on Tuesday is open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. at election sites in each county. Anyone in line at 7 p.m. will be allowed to vote. Find a polling place near you from the Secretary of State at nmvote.gov.
Pat Davis is the founder and publisher of nm.news. In a prior life he served as an Albuquerque City Councilor.
